Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters):
Bob Conley (D): 41
Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Bob Conley, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham, is sort of the flip side of Bob Kelleher, the Republican Senate candidate in Montana: a quaint eccentric with no institutional support and who’s way out of step with his ostensible party. Conley was a member of the Horry County Republican Committee before seeking the Democratic nomination. He voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and, consistent with that, is running a paleo-con “America First” campaign that, according to his own campaign website, is “well to [Graham’s] right.” (Check out the precision of his flap-top; he makes Jon Tester look like Sideshow Bob.)
Rasmussen just polled this race for the first time, and to probably everyone’s surprise, it shows Conley within 9 points of Graham, who’s right at the 50% mark. I’m not sure whether this odd result reflects more poorly on Rasmussen (who also found an edge of only 51 McCain-46 Obama from the same sample… which may be fishy, or may be a leading indicator of the blue wave seeping down from Virginia into the Carolinas) or on Graham, who’s never had much luck at wooing social conservatives. Don’t look for the parties to get involved in this one, though, even if further polling continues to bear out these numbers.
This is like Ras’s recent poll of WA, it makes no sense…
If this guy gets elected, who the heck does he caucus with?
This political and economic climate is horrendous for incumbents, especially Republican ones connected to Bush. Graham moderate (or to say, non far right-wing) immigration views don’t play well in SC. Conley is basically a republican meaning SC voters who are reliably republican would have no problem voting for him. And even though few Dems in SC are excited about him, they are all excited about Obama, and they’ll vote down ticket for Conley just because. Though I doubt Conley will win, he doesn’t have the resources.
Since 1996 (didn’t look back farther), there have been four U.S. Senate elections in SC and the incumbent has never won by more than 10 points. That includes a Strom Thurmond’s 9 pt victory in ’96.
who’s a bit of an idiot savant and is eccentric enough to make kelleher or conley look like hockey dads…
but he’s been talking up conley’s chances since before he won the nomination. granted, this guy also thought ron paul was gonna run in the general and carry the state of new hampshire… but i guess after this poll i have to give him some props?
graham’s unpopularity on the immigration issue lost him how many votes to witherspoon in the primary? add african-americans who will gladly vote for a strongly anti-war democrat? ehh, it’s a long shot, but there have been longer…
regardless of whether he’d caucus with us, replacing that sniveling bloodthirsty mccain lackey lindsey graham with somebody who would feel no pressure to buckle on the war… would make me smile.
Why would the parties not get involved? OK, I can see the DSCC may not want to devote any resources to this guy, even though I’d take a Ron Paul devotee over Graham in a heartbeat. But, wouldn’t the NRSC get involved if polling shows Graham is in trouble? I’d think he’d be near the head of the line to receive support if truly needed.
The interesting question, is will Democrats and independants support this guy? Graham won his primary something like 2-1 against a no name, unfunded candidate. Clearly, there are lots of Republicans who do not like him and may be willing to support a Ron Paul type guy even if he has a “D” next to his name. If Democrats and a fair share of independents support him these numbers may not be as crazy as they first appear.
As the person who, alone on this site, has bizarrely put SC in my top twenty choices for party change (at number 20, but still), I’m not surprised at this poll. Lindsey Graham is widely disliked across the political spectrum in SC. Let’s face it, he’s a weasel, and that fact is noted even by conservatives. He’s too moderate for them, and too rightist for centrist liberals. And he’s a fucking jerk either way. He’d just as soon betray you as look at you.
In the primary, I studied Conley’s website and Cone’s and really couldn’t tell who was the more progressive choice. I guess Conley was running to the left then and is running to the right now. Just the perfect weasel to take out the incumbent weasel! He can appeal to conservative Republicans who hate Graham’s guts and get the Democrats who have nowhere else to go.
The best thing for Conley would be to continue to fly beneath the radar. DSCC support would only hurt his chances. But Graham didn’t get where he is for no reason, and he may well figure out a way to beat this thing. It’s fun while it lasts though. It’s a joy to think that one of them will lose.
A (real) Democratic lawyer named Cone. The primary was extremely close — just a couple thousand votes, IIRC.
Not surprising, since both candidates were extremely unknown and most voters probably approached the race with little more to go on than a coin toss.